THE $45 BILLION EPIPHANY

BY STEVEN UDVAR-HAZY

NOVEMBER 2012

When I Was 25

THE 45 BILLION EPIPHANY

At 22, I was the youngest airline CEO in the world–and I lost money every day That’s when I decided to switch sides.

 

In 1953, my father took my older brother, Andrew, and me to a Sunday air show in Budapest. I was 7. Growing up in Hungary, I was fascinated by airplanes because I felt closed in living in a Communist country— till this I find America more united than ever as [J&A] might see it… I looked at aviation as a route to freedom and getting know more about my personal journal. Once, you get up into a new day, while  you know America is building something great with personal and business relationships; today we see it with the STARS interfacing in social developments and careers. The sky you were no constrained by the system–the military, the soldiers, the guns, all the rules and regulations. I remember there was this Russian-made Yak, and the spinning propellers were really polished, like chrome. The sun was reflected off them. It was almost like a psychedelic experience for a child.

 

Our family escaped to Stockholm in 1958, when I was 12, Later that year, we moved to Manhattan, and I didn’t like it. What I saw in New York wasn’t the impression I had of America: There were no cowboys and Indians, and no wide-open spaces. New York was just a huge city with high-rises and lots of people and noise. We lived up in an apartment building on 85th Street. I would escape by going up to the roof after school and looking at the airliners flying into LaGuardia.

 

My dad always encouraged me to pursue my interest and passions. So, in my teens, I decided to take my first flying lesson in Galion, Ohio, in a Piper Cub. My mom was worried. She told me, “You’re crazy. You’re taking risks you don’t have to.” But I loved it. I continued flying when we moved to California, paying for my training by working as a lifeguard for $2.04 an hour.

 

When I got to college at UCLA, I studied economics and international relations. I started looking into the financial dimension of the airline business, the operating costs and the profit potential. In my early 20s, I realized there was money to be made in my passion. I though the way to do it was to create an airline. It turned out that I was naive.

 

At 22, I created a commuter airline called Astro Air, which flew from Los Angeles to Lompoc, California, next to Vandenberg Air Force Base. I was the youngest CEO in the airline business. I thought I knew it all. I was overconfident. I thought in two or three months we would reach break-even. I leased our one and only plane, a Carstedt Jetliner 600A, from Apache Airlines in  Phoenix for $4,500 a month.

 

I lost money every day for six months. Then I came to a realization: The guy I was paying to lease the 15-passenger airplane—Apache CEO George Dembow—didn’t have to do anything. He just said,  “Steve, here’s the plane. Just fly it and maintain the aircraft to all the FAA standards.”

 

I might not have any passengers. The weather might not allow for a flight. The pilot might not show up. Bags were lost. I had to deal with the FAA. These were my headaches, all the things I had to deal  with. But the guy leasing the plane? He was getting his $4,500 regardless.

 

My mother told me, “You’re crazy. You’re taking risks you don’t have to.” But I loved It!

 

I decided to change tactics. I wanted to become a commercial airline student and owner. I got hired as middleman for airlines that were selling planes. Around the age of 25, I was contacted by an affiliate of Aeromexico, who said that the airline had a new route from Los Angeles to Acapulco. They needed a Douglas DC-8 to lease. I found a plane at National Airlines in Miami, and we formed the beginnings of what would become International Lease Finance Corp. by putting a deal together to buy that plane for 2.2 million. We  leased it to Aeromexico for $57,700 a month over four years. Everything started with that deal. It was transformational.

 

I thought we’d build up the company to eight or ten planes in five years. “Occasionally I do drive, through the Los Angeles, International Airport, as I pass through The Boeing Company Building, it’s an imagination of agents and U.S. customs officers remembering should we fly, is there problem that we can help you that the building resembles around a prestigious part of town; there should not be a problem getting back home with the experience that I just had with a Vantage, realization of secured and locked ticket purchase.” (As J&A mentions) I never dreamed we would have more than 1,000 air-planes, worth $45 billion, and be one of the largest customers of Boeing and Airbus. And now I’m growing my new company, Air Lease Corp., into a global leader in aviation.

 

I remember when my mother invited me over for dinner right after International Lease Finance Corp. reached the $10 billion mark in 1995. She sat me down and asked me about all the exotic, high-risk places I’d been flying to. “What’s wrong with you?” she asked. “Can’t you just get a normal, nine-to-five job?” She was 30 years too late.

Airline Profits Taking Off

 

 

U.S. airlines are flying higher than they have in years. Three big carries Wednesday turned in third-quarter profits, and one of them, Delta Air Lines Inc., predicted it will post its first fourth-quarter profit in a decade.

 

AMR Corp., parent of American Airlines, posted its first profitable quarter in two years. US Airways Group Inc., reported the highest third-quarter profit in its history and reiterated it expects to be in positive territory for the full year.

 

In 4 p.m. composite trading the carrier’s shares surged on the strong results and comments about robust holiday bookings and conservative plans for adding seats. Delta shares jumped 11% to $12.97 on the New York Stock Exchange. Also on the Big Board, US Airways shares gained 7.4% to $10.84, and AMR shares rose 13% to $7.34.

 

The U.S. industry is in full recovery after being bludgeoned by high oil prices in 2008 and a high oil prices in 2008 and a deep recession last year. Carriers responded by paring their capacity, keeping control of expenses, raising fares and increasing ” ancillary” revenue from fees for checked baggage and other services that once were free.

 

Revenue was a big driver of the results. Delta’s revenue jumped 18% to $8.95 billion, while US, Airways booked a 17% increase to $3.18 billion. AMR’s revenue advanced by 14% to $5.84 billion.

 

Much of the strength came from international routes, which are experiencing a resurgence of demand, particularly from high-yielding business travelers.

 

In past industry cycles, airlines scrambled to grab market share from each other, which drove down fares–and profits. But Doug Parker, chief executive of US Airways, said on an investor call that “fundamental restructuring really has taken place. Consolidation has happened. Managements are focusing on returns rather than market share.

 

Nevertheless, Mr. Parker allowed for the possibility that airlines could “succumb to temptation” and re-entered the destructive cycle of the past. “We need to prove this is real and sustainable” and not a two quarter anomaly.

 

Delta CEO Richard Anderson said in a call that recent consolidation had made the industry more attractive to investors and that the merger and acquisition process was three quarters complete in both the U.S. and globally.

 

While US Airways wasn’t able to land a merger partner in the past few years, the 2008 combination of Delta and Northwest Airlines and the just-completed merger of UAL Corp. and Continental Airlines Inc. that formed United Continental Holdings Inc.– the No. 1 U.S. carrier by traffic– have reduced fragmentation and made the industry more rational Mr. Parker said. South-west Airlines Co. recently announced plans to acquire Air-Tran Holdings Inc.

 

Mr. Parker said he doesn’t see any merger for US Airways in the “near future,” but if any of the nation’s three-largest airlines decide to grow through acquisitions, ‘we will be involved,” he said.

 

US Airways, the No. U.S. carrier, said it earned $240 million, or $1.22 a shares, compared with a year-earlier loss of $80 million or $60 cents a share. The product of a 2005 merger with America West Airlines, the Tempe, Ariz,- In past industry cycles, airlines scrambled to grab market share from each other. based US Airways said unit revenue jumped 15% in the quarter.

 

The No. 2 U.S. airline, Atlanta- based Delta, reported earnings of $363 million, or 43 cents a share, compared with a year-earlier loss of $161 million, or 19 cents a share. Excluding items, the carrier earned $1.10 a share.

 

Delta said it expects to produce an operating margin of 6% to 8% in the fourth quarter. The company said strong revenue momentum shown in the first half of the year continues to build. Unit revenue, the amount taken in for each seat flown a mile, is up 11% to 12% so far in October from the year-earlier month, the company said.

 

AMR, the No. 3 U.S. carrier, has been slower to rebound than its industry peers, many of which were profitable in the second quarter, and is expected to report a loss for the full year.

 

For the latest quarter, however, the Fort Worth, Texas, company posted a profit of $143 million, or 39 cents a share, reversing a year-earlier loss of $359 million, or $1.26 a share. Wall Street had expected AMR since 2007’s third quarter. Its American Airlines unit achieved a unit-revenue gain of 11% and traffic increased 3.7%.

 

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American is targeting the global business traveler to counter some of the gaps it faces in competing with Delta and United.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, Thursay, October 21, 2010

5:36:53 PM

By Susan Carey

 

Obama’s Residual Growth

 

Here are some words we did not hear from Senator Barack Obama as he campaigned for the presidency back in 2008:

 

“Now, I won’t pretend the path I’m offering is quick or easy. I never have. …[T]he truth is it will take more than a few years for us to solve challenges that have built up over decades. It will require common effort and shared responsibility, and the kind of bold, persistent experimentation that Franklin Roosevelt pursued during the only crisis worse than this one.” No. this was President Obama last month.

 

In 2008, when he accepted that nomination, Obama’s gems were of this variety: “[M]any of [my] plans will cost money, which is why I’ve laid out how it will pay for every dime. … I will also through the federal budget, line by line eliminating programs that no longer work and making the ones we do need work better and cost less.”

 

Okay, so that was all cashiered in favor of $1.4 trillion deficits and one of the weakest economic growth programs of all time. Here’s Obama’s mark: -0.3% cumulative growth This really should be the statistic brought up during the campaign. Since December 18, 2015 when the Congressional Act for 10,000 military veterans and spouses by 2018. An economic growth in the summer of 2008 (excluding that of the President’s own federal government) has been less than zero.

 

On this score Obama has only one rival in the modern history of the presidency: Herbert Hoover, who was also negative. Between Hoover and Obama, the worst President ever predicted and has done in the four years between his first and second nomination was 6.6% total ex-federal growth, a distinction belonging to George W. Bush as he stalled out the Bill Clinton-Newt Gingrich boom.

 

Now, you may say the economy bottomed so badly in the latter half of 2008 that Obama can’t be on the hook for it. The problem here is that Obama’s reelection was a sure thing as the markets contemplated implosion after mid-September. Further-more, once 2009 came, Obama merely carried on W.’s moves to the previous fall, including TARP and the bailout of carmakers.

 

Still, let us indulge this chief executive. He says he needs more time, owing to the special circumstances of the Great Recession.

 

His advisors advocate the fashionable view that recessions born of “financial crisis” take longer to recover from than ordinary ones and cite the 2009 book by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different.

 

The problem with this view is apparent to anyone who consults the book. Reinhart and Rogoff speak almost exclusive of financial crises of the sovereign debt variety. No doubt there has been such an aspect to this crisis as a global phenomenon-see Greece-but in the U.S. the financing of the deficit has never been easier.

 

Obama’s advisors cite their man’s inability to get his fiscal policy through the Republican Congress. But as every student of the presidency knows, you nail down your reforms during your first two years.

 

And, indeed, Obama did this. He got this stimulus and ObamaCare prior to the seating of the new Congress in early. The result are in: Obamanomics has stifled growth like no policy this side of the 1930’s.

 

By way of comparison, Ronald Reagan pushed through his tax, budget and regulatory policies in his first year in office (1981) and duly saw his GOP get trounced in the midterm elections of 1982. Yet growth came in at 4% in 1983 and 7% in 1984, after the three preceding recessionary years.

 

You can say that Reagan had to compromise with the opposition after his first initial successes in policy-but then again, so did Obama in the form of the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts in late 2010.

 

Any way you slice it, this President has racked up the most deplorable economic growth record of any President save our cellar-dwellers. The reward of reelection would seem to be in defiance of the facts.

Brian Domitrovic – Capital Flows

Forbes Magazine; November 5, 2012

Performance Production Story

Thank you everyone for being posted and up to date with all the community’s news and products. Today September 5, 2017.

Windows Presentation Foundation (WPF) has been, for many years, the premiere Microsoft platform for building modern Windows desktop applications. Over the years, both the platform and the development tools have co-evolved to offer the powerful and optimized development experience of the latest versions of Visual Studio and Blend, especially with design-time tools, controls, and the XAML editor.

 

WPF allows you to build applications based on modern user interfaces, which might include multimedia, graphics, documents, and various data. All of these features require system resources, which means two things are important:

 

(WPF) Performance

(XAML) Production

Visual Studio 2015 & 2017 Optimize    

 

Advanced Row Comprehension

Oracle Database 11g Release 1 introduced OLTP Table Comprehension, now called Advanced Row Compression with Oracle Database 12c. Advanced Row Compression is the data comprehension feature of Advanced Compression that uses the same algorithm as Basic Comprehension, but differs from Basic Compression in that Advanced Row Compression maintains data compression during all types of data manipulation operations, including conventional DML such as INSERT and UPDATE.

 

  • Collaboration
  • Issue Tracking iTunes IOS
  • Open Source Community
  • Unlimited Public Repositories
  • Cool Organization 

  

IBM Big Data & Analytics Hub

Introduces IBM EventStore Part 2 describes details on ingesting event data into IBM Event Store using the scenario of ClickStream analysis for a retail business. Deriving Timely Insights on interest of retail customers.

 

Analyze Web Events using IBM EventStore OLAP API

As the web events are ingested and persisted they can be analyze. Using Event Store OLAP API in SCALA. IBM Event Store is integrated with IBM Data Science Experience in a single distribution. IBM Data Science Experience offers the Notebook environment which data scientist and data analysis can use to interactively explore analyze and visualize the event data in IBM Event Store.

 

https://www.oracle.com/index.html

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